Arctic Calculus
Cold, calculated market analysis. We show our work, share our models, and hunt for +EV opportunities across prediction markets and sports betting.
Featured Research
How We Model NBA Player Props: A Multi-Factor Approach
Inside our NBA player prop model — how we blend PPM projections, defensive matchups, rest adjustments, pace, and blowout risk into a single probability estimate.
How We Beat Weather Markets: The Arctic Odds Methodology
A deep dive into our ensemble forecasting system, signal generation process, and the math behind hunting +EV opportunities in Kalshi temperature markets.
All Research
Golf Tournament Picks: Course Fit Meets Strokes Gained
How our golf model blends Strokes Gained rankings with course-specific skill demands to find mispriced tournament props across Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Make Cut, and Winner markets.
NHL Game Totals: Why Goalies Are the Whole Story
How our NHL game totals model uses goalie tiers, back-to-back fatigue, and pace adjustments to find mispriced over/unders in hockey.
Week 1 Recap: Signals, Wins, and Lessons from the Cold
Our first weekly recap covering 47 signals across 4 cities. What worked, what didn't, and the surprising edge we found in overnight model updates.
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