We Run the Numbers
So You Don't Have To
A polar bear doesn't chase every seal. It waits at the breathing hole — patient, calculated — striking only when the odds are right.
The Origin
Arctic Odds started with a simple question: Can we beat prediction markets with better data?
We were watching weather markets on Kalshi — contracts that settle on whether tomorrow's high in Chicago hits 35°F. Simple stuff. But the prices looked... wrong. Not dramatically wrong, but consistently off by a few percentage points.
So we built a model. Then a better model. Then an ensemble of models that combines HRRR, GFS, and ECMWF forecasts, calibrates them against years of historical accuracy, and outputs precise probability distributions.
Turns out, we were right. The markets were mispricing. Not by a lot — but enough. Enough to find edge.
Why Weather?
We didn't pick weather markets randomly. We picked them because they're the perfect proving ground.
Objective Settlement
Weather contracts settle on official NWS readings. No subjectivity. No manipulation. Just thermometers and timestamps.
Data Advantage
We process real-time METAR observations, ensemble forecasts, and historical calibration data. Most traders just check their weather app.
Daily Feedback
Markets resolve every day. We know within 24 hours if our model was right. Fast iteration, fast improvement.
The Arctic Calculus
Our edge comes from doing the math that others won't.
Ensemble Forecasting
We don't trust any single weather model. Our system combines three world-class numerical weather prediction systems:
- HRRRHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh — 3km resolution, hourly updates
- GFSGlobal Forecast System — NOAA's global model
- ECMWFEuropean model — consistently the most accurate globally
Probability Calibration
Raw forecasts aren't probabilities. We transform model outputs into calibrated probability distributions using:
- Historical BiasHow wrong is each model typically? We adjust.
- Uncertainty QuantificationWider distributions when models disagree
- Bracket MappingCDF integration for precise bracket probabilities
Signal Generation Pipeline
The Polar Bear Approach
Calculated Patience
We don't bet on everything. A polar bear might wait hours at a breathing hole. We wait for edge — and when we see it, we strike.
Data Over Gut
Every signal comes from a model, not a hunch. We show our probabilities vs. market probabilities. You see the math.
Cold-Blooded Discipline
No chasing losses. No doubling down on feelings. The model says what it says. We follow the numbers.
Why "Arctic"?
The polar bear is the apex predator of patience. It doesn't chase prey across the ice — it reads the environment, calculates the odds, positions itself at the optimal spot, and waits. When the seal surfaces, it strikes with precision.
That's our approach to markets. We're not here to gamble. We're here to find +EV.
What We're Building
Weather Markets
Temperature predictions for NYC, Chicago, Miami, Austin, Philadelphia, Denver, and Los Angeles. Live now with real-time signals.
- Kalshi Daily Temps
- High/Low Brackets
- 7 Major Cities
Sports Models
Basketball, hockey, and golf models live now. Baseball arriving by Opening Day 2026.
- Basketball Player Props
- Hockey Game Totals
- Golf Tournament Picks
- Baseball — Opening Day 2026
Event Markets
Political, economic, and cultural event predictions where data and analysis can provide edge.
- Fed Rate Decisions
- Election Markets
- Economic Indicators
Ready to Find Your Edge?
Join the pack and get access to our model signals.